Press Releases
Connective Urbanism: Urban Speculations
Urban Speculations is the concluding chapter within Connective Urbanism – New York, a series of diagrammatic provocations by KPF Urban which reveal the visible and invisible connections between large-scale systems and spark considerations of city-scale transformations. New York City faces overlapping challenges including sea level rise, projected population growth to 9.5 million by 2040, housing shortages, congestion, and the urgent need to decarbonise energy systems. Rising flood risk and changing patterns of work and logistics are putting additional pressure on infrastructure and urban space. Urban Speculations uses data-driven scenarios presented as provocations intended to reveal how these systems are interconnected and prompt ambitious thinking about how the city can adapt and evolve.
Social City
Demographic changes have reduced the demand for office space, but even as the return to physical offices continues, the idea of a monofunctional central business district has become outdated. Cities need to transition to "central social districts" to create vibrant urban centers. A recent study found that less than 10 percent of people employed in the city work in the office five days per week. In 2023, New York City’s office vacancy hit 22%, the highest level since records began in 1984. Converting 60% of the city’s vacant office space could create more than 30,000 new housing units. Here we consider how single-use districts can be transformed into versatile vertical communities.
The city becomes an ever-evolving mosaic of work, habitation, leisure, culture, entertainment, and education, creating dynamic hubs that redefine city life. These vibrant neighborhoods reduce car dependence by providing most daily needs within a 5–10 minute walking distance. Buildings that are truly obsolete and not suitable for transformation could sell their air rights to adjacent buildings and be removed, creating pocket parks that improve well-being and create economic value for the surrounding neighborhood.
What if business districts became social districts?
The office-dominated business district transformed into a mixed-use social district.
New Homes
Upper floors become residential units, by removing portions of the existing floorplates for appropriate daylight and ventilation. Planted roofs introduce social spaces across multiple levels.
Interior Opportunities
New uses can be inserted in existing buildings. For example, a university campus with library, auditorium, and student dormitories can occupy the building’s lower floors.
Overbuild
A hybrid approach to retrofit and new build increases density and diversity.
Pocket Parks
Removing obsolete buildings to create open space lifts values across the district.
A business district is transformed by partial or full-building adaptive reuse to provide a diversified rental portfolio for developers and bring 24-hour activity to a traditionally 9-to-5 neighborhood.
Intense City
Faced with rising sea levels (more than 1.8 million New York City residents will live in areas at risk of flooding in 2100), this scenario leans into a combination of managed retreat and fortified development edges made possible through sea walls, floodgates, and newly formed wetlands. By focusing on transit-oriented development (TOD), New York transcends adaptation to become a thriving city of connectivity and convenience. Our city-wide speculation of density redistribution around dozens of TODs built around existing subway lines—moving more than 900,000 New Yorkers to within a five-minute walk of transit—suggests a decentralized network of bustling, mixed-use mini-metropolises.
Here, a mixture of household sizes and income levels are developed alongside offices, retail, schools, and cultural venues, cultivating pedestrian-friendly streets and providing inviting open spaces. High-rise, mixed-use development is strategically placed in low-density, underutilized sites where multiple transport options—train, bus, air, taxi, EVs, and different forms of micromobilty can converge.
What if New York Prioritized transit-oriented development?
Many areas in New York are suitable for transit-oriented development. Each has a high density of transit stops, large lots, and relatively low existing FAR. Significant densification could be accommodated in Jamaica, East New York, and Jackson Heights.
Diverse Populations
A mix of household sizes and income levels is served by community facilities and linked green spaces.
Strategic Street Closures
Combined with lane reductions, these allow for improved cycleways and pedestrian-oriented public space.
Urban Accessibility
A dynamic urban setting features offices, retail, cultural venues, schools, and healthcare facilities within a five-minute radius.
Congestion Pricing
Tolls fund investment in Subway and BRT service.
Energy Management
EV charging is integrated with battery storage capabilities.
Strategic development connects varied transit modes, integrating trains, buses, Subway, and cycling infrastructures to create an efficient and integrated system as part of a mixed-use development.
Logistics City
A city’s economic potential is tied to its logistic efficiency. Currently, 2.3 million packages are delivered every day in New York. As we continue to order more individual packages to our homes, escalating goods deliveries will come with serious economic and health implications. About 7,800 delivery trucks, running 10–16 hours per day, are deployed in New York bringing congestion, poor air quality, and noise pollution along with the Amazon packages, food deliveries, and online shopping orders. For this speculation, inspiration was drawn from initiatives for maritime freight and last-mile deliveries, outlined in reports published by the NYC Department of Transportation.
Here, every journey, whether by train, truck, AV, drone, or cargo bike, is optimized for harmony. A logistics network system is envisioned that exploits New York’s freight rail lines, extensive coastline, and abundant navigable waterways. This enables the movement of goods from large regional ports to dispersed district distribution hubs and last-mile neighborhood logistics centers, where goods can be delivered through micromobility options. Distribution hubs become a repeatable typology, creating landmarks along the water’s edge, and reducing congestion on the street, resulting in increased space for socializing. Parcels are delivered with a better urban environment.
What if New York were designed for the perfect delivery?
A distribution network system that exploits New York’s freight rail lines, extensive coastline, and abundant navigable waterways.
Rooftop Launchpad
For large cargo drones.
Fulfillment Center
Multiple docking stations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that deliver to customers.
Logistics Center
A continuous ramp eases circulation for EVs and delivery robots collecting cargo.
Transport Interface
Automated cranes transfer containers from ships, freight trains, and electric trucks for sorting and distribution.
A typical Coastline Distribution Hub.
Decarbonized City
New York's electricity demand is vast, currently exceeding 35 megawatt hours of peak daily use, it will continue to grow as vehicles and building systems switch from fossil fuels to electricity. With the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, and on the tails of the NYS Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, New York is taking ambitious steps to expand its access to renewable power sources in the next decade. This scenario speculates on the consequences of the deep transformation required at neighborhood and regional scales to meet these goals while retaining energy resilience and independence.
New York will rely on electricity generated beyond the city's boundaries, including utility-scaled solar and offshore wind fields, delivered along new transmission lines that influence urban growth patterns. The cityscape evolves, with advanced storage systems becoming a new and repeatable typology across the city. This speculation considers critical interventions required to decouple buildings from fossil fuels, from retrofitting to reduce energy use to integrating alternative energy sources, building in resilience in anticipation of extreme weather events alongside an overhaul of traditional construction to reduce embodied carbon and minimize disruption.
What if New York transitioned into a fully renewable future?
The diagram anticipates how New York could be weaned off fossil fuels and supplied by renewable sources.
Full Electrification
The widespread transition to heat pump solutions for heating transforms the configuration of tall buildings.
Low Carbon Modular Construction
New construction techniques minimize waste, integrate bio-based materials, and sequester carbon.
Hybrid Timber Structures
Mass timber combined with steel and concrete supports urban-scale carbon sequestration and low-carbon density.
Systems Resilience
Building MEP and envelope systems are designed to accommodate extreme weather conditions in the future.
Building Circularity
Adaptive reuse is prioritized, with materials in existing buildings treated as a resource to be mined.
Community Solar
Renewable energy becomes a distributed, decentralized power resource.
Thermal Energy Districts
Shared thermal resources and loads facilitate the decarbonization of existing structures.
Distributed Power Storage
Advanced battery systems ensure an even supply of electricity and become a new building typology.
Decarbonizing New York’s built environment will require a holistic set of solutions, addressing operational and embodied carbon at the scale of urban systems.
Complex City
What if we could have it all?
These four scenarios illustrate the symbiotic integration of all urban systems. Many have positive impacts on others. For example: improving urban logistics reduces vehicular traffic, creating room for increased bike infrastructure and green spaces, which in turn enhances connectivity, reduces air pollution, and improves public health. Together, these scenarios stand as a cohesive testament to New York’s inherent adaptability, illustrating a bold vision for the future.
Connective Urbanism is a contemporary portrait of New York City, illustrated by the recent work of KPF. The publication features a collection of essays by leading urbanists and commentators and a series of speculations on the future of the city from KPF Urban.
Related Stories
Press Releases
